Predicting DC Thermals

[Jon Manwaring]

Craig, PLEASE HELP
I'm frustrated, Pepe, seems to be scratching his head, DCJim may have some insight: but WTH are we missing in Predicting DC thermals? WE look at SDN, UTPCY and they seem to suggest we will get to ride. BUT again, it's teaser wind, like I experienced on Fri and the crew got on Sat. Other than Your Magic Gift and Experience, what key ingredients are we missing? NOAA and the graphical are also showing us something. But again, time of arrival and strength eludes us. Please give us some incite. Next week looks again like we could ride, but at what time and strength seems to be a mystery
Thanks
JonMzee

[Craig Goudie]

Hi John, welcome to my world.

Yeh, there's considerably more to it than just the SDN and UTPC stations.
Also, the reason I stop forecasting after October isn't just because it's too cold to sail, it's also
because I have a heck of a time figuring out what generates wind in November.

So, for what it's worth (and these are just my theories), the days are so short as November comes
on that there does not appear to be enough time for a thermal to really get going. It gets cold enough, and
then warm enough, but the high temp doesn't last long enough, to really get the air moving up the canyon.
So, in November, you really need a kicker, like an approaching front, to add enough energy to get the air moving.
It could just be a short wave, or a full fledged front, but unless you get something in addition to the sunshine,
you're going to end up with weak SW gusts from 3 until 5PM. Look for a kink, or even an "S" curve in the
surface, or 400 millibar pressure gradient, coming in from the Northwest. That usually imparts enough energy
to get something going at DC. Other things that retard the thermal are, high pressure centered over Nevada,
and (this is really counter physics, because wet air is easier to move than dry air) high humidity (like with an inversion).

There is more, but like I said, it's conjecture and theory (and maybe a little magic too)

-Craig

Craig, PLEASE HELP
I'm frustrated, Pepe, seems to be scratching his head, DCJim may have some insight: but WTH are we missing in Predicting DC thermals? WE look at SDN, UTPCY and they seem to suggest we will get to ride. BUT again, it's teaser wind, like I experienced on Fri and the crew got on Sat. Other than Your Magic Gift and Experience, what key ingredients are we missing? NOAA and the graphical are also showing us something. But again, time of arrival and strength eludes us. Please give us some incite. Next week looks again like we could ride, but at what time and strength seems to be a mystery
Thanks
JonMzee

[DimitriMilovich]

Fascinating. I wonder what the sailplane pilots in Heber are watching and thinking each day they contemplate going soaring? Are they lucky enough to have a Craig to guide them?

[Jon Manwaring]

Craig,
Thanks for your response. I (WE) very much appreciate how much time and talent it takes you to do your forecasts. There is so much information to find, study and compile. No wonder we amateurs struggle with it. Except maybe Marty, who has the Magic 8 Ball. Rather than trying to catch the elusive, short lived thermal at DC, I think I'll head out to the desert and ride my dirt bike. Or maybe just PRAY for SNOW.
Thanks again,
Jon